(This is Part 19 of a series. Go back to Part 18.)
However, as discussed above concerning cancer, under unusual circumstances self-regulating feedback systems can break down and new self-reinforcing (that is, positive feedback) systems can take their place:
For instance, federal deficits are beginning to spiral out of control. The deficit is already estimated at $300 billion for this fiscal year and that is before the effects of large new tax cuts and the cost of the war in Iraq, which could add hundreds of billions. The interest on this debt then adds to the deficits, and beyond a certain point they can spiral upward on their own.
Another process which can become self-reinforcing is economic depression from the collapse of a credit bubble. As economic activity contracts people and businesses put off purchases, which feeds the deleveraging effects of the bubble—and the process begins to feed on itself.
Another economic example is the trade deficit. As we gobble up more oil and goods from Asia, the U.S. trade deficit is ballooning to unprecedented levels. Beyond a certain point the very size of the trade deficit itself can cause investors to become nervous and pull money out of the U.S. That is, the process can become self-reinforcing.
The U.S. treasury is borrowing over two billion dollars every business day from foreign investors and central banks to fund the budget. If the dollar were to decline far enough, foreign investors could panic and pull vast sums out of U.S. stock and bond markets, accelerating declines in those markets as well as the dollar and the economy.
Both of these situations, then, a decline of the dollar or the stock market, have the potential to become runaway processes feeding upon themselves. Beyond a certain point, the very severity of the declines can cause investors to panic and sell further, accelerating those declines to levels unimaginable today.
Finally, lets look once again at the global ecology. As just one example, global temperature is normally self-limiting. For instance, as CO2 levels rise, plants, which pull CO2 out of the atmosphere, increase their CO2 uptake, so that the process is normally self-regulating. However, beyond a certain point this self-regulation can cross a line of instability and become overwhelmed by a new self-reinforcing process. One way it can happen is like this:
The vast ice sheets which cover the north and south poles reflect heat from the sun back into space, helping to keep global temperatures relatively cool. But if the global temperature rises beyond a certain point a process can be initiated whereby more ice melts, there is less ice and therefore less sunlight reflected back into space, which in turn warms the planet further, further decreasing the ice sheets and so on in a runaway process.
Many other examples could be given.
It's worth noting that even all runaway processes are ultimately self-regulating; it's just that the self-regulation then comes from the next higher level of network than the level at which the runaway is occurring.
For example, if the human population pollutes the earth too much and the temperature of the planet rises in a runaway process, the planet could become increasingly unhospitable to humans, causing the human population to decline dramatically. In turn, the natural self-regulating processes of the planet's ecology would probably re-assert themselves.
Paradoxically, the remaining humans would then be in a much better position—and probably have the wisdom at that point—to flourish in cooperation with nature rather than being toxic to it. Though extremely traumatic and stressful, this process would ultimately serve a corrective and constructive purpose.
Similarly, if the stock market and/or the dollar enters a "waterfall" phase along with the economy, this would bring the current Great Global Credit Bubble cascading down to a sustainable base, which could then set the stage for a long and sustainable growth period in the future.
As noted previously, an economic contraction is thus similar to the process that happens when a person fasts and allows the body to detoxify and re-organize itself. Though such contractive and detoxifying periods—whether in the body, the economy, the ecology or other areas—can be stressful and painful, they are ultimately constructive processes.
All processes in the universe are ultimately self-correcting and constructive, either at the level at which they occur, or if necessary, at the level of the next higher degree of network. Reality is universally self-correcting. Once again we can catch a tiny glimpse that reality is always right in its inherent beauty, perfection and harmony.
(This is the end of Part 19. Go to Part 20.)
—jim sloman, 1.25.03 for Apr 28
|
