(This is Part 2 of a 2-part article. Go to Part 1.)
The third secondary effect of the invasion of Iraq will be that, in setting an example of a pre-emptive first-strike against a nation that has not attacked us, the important doctrine of foreswearing such strikes—a doctrine that has been painstakingly building for centuries among civilized nations—will be severely damaged.
Other countries may look at our example and use it to justify the use of pre-emptive first strikes themselves. This could potentially affect a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, an Indian invasion of Pakistan and many other areas of potential conflict. Though it's impossible to predict the specifics, the generalized conclusion of an increase in conflict and war across the globe is not difficult to predict.
The fourth secondary effect will be a greatly increased polarization in US society for and against the war, an increased polarization that will be mirrored across the world as anti-US feelings. It goes without saying that this will also lead to increased terrorism directed towards the US as well as towards US territories and interests.
Hence the importance of considering the secondary effects of any contemplated action, because, unlike the obvious primary effects, the secondary and opposite effects tend to be the real and permanent effects achieved.
Moreover, all of the secondary effects which will likely come about from an invasion of Iraq can actually be considered "par for the course" for this period in our history, if not in specifics then in general outline. How can that be?
In my opinion, we are at the very edge of falling into a great worldwide depression, which will be the end-result of a vast credit expansion which has lasted for some seven decades now, and by some measures for twenty decades. (See Economic cycles.)
During the bullish phases of such a phenomenon, as money and credit increase, a general sense of harmony tends to increase as well. Though there are periodic setbacks which can be drastic, the general sense is that there is greater prosperity and a larger pie to divide, which in turn facilitates an increased sense of unity and cooperation.
Conversely, on the down side of such a phenomenon, as markets and economies decline, a much greater sense of polarization is fostered. The nations involved—the whole world in this case—become more pessimistic, polarized, fearful and aggressive towards "others."
These effects show up geopolitically, economically and socially, and not incidentally, as a much greater tendency towards conflicts and wars. As examples, the Civil War in the U.S. followed the depression of the mid-1800s, and World War II followed the global depression of the 1930s.
In my opinion, the coming global depression will be no exception to this, and so the invasion of Iraq is a foretaste of more military conflicts to come.
Such great tides up-and-down are endemic in the human story, and are to be expected. Indeed, the down portions of such cycles, though they can entail enormous suffering, actually do serve a corrective purpose. (Please see The self-correcting universe.)
For just as an outbreath must precede the next inbreath, and just as every advance in a market must be digested and corrected before the advance can continue, so the down portions of such cycles correct the excesses of the last expansion and lay the foundation for the next forward movement in human affairs.
—jim sloman, 10/14/02 for Dec 14
|
