(This is Part 1 of a series.)
The recent tragic events in New Orleans and surrounding areas remind us that non-linear events can occur in human affairs. These are events that are discontinuous with the time period preceding them, and often involve tremendous suffering. It therefore behooves us to look into them:
There are two basic types of non-linear events—those that cannot be predicted using current technology, and those that can. Examples of the first type are the explosion of Krakatoa in the 1880s and the recent tsunami in southeast Asia. Perhaps this type of event will be predictable some day, but it isn't now.
The second type of non-linear event is more germaine, since its predictable quality allows for the possibility of
a meaningful intervention to prevent or ameliorate the oncoming catastrophe.
This type of predictability, however, has a particular quality, because we can say that the event is going to happen but we can't say exactly when. That is, though
the exact timing can't be pinpointed, that the event will happen is a virtual certainty.
Sadly, Hurricane Katrina and its associated suffering were of this predictable type. That is, though the exact timing of the horrific flooding of New Orleans could not have been predicted, that the flooding was going to happen sooner or later was more or less certain. For two reasons:
First, one of the standard predictions of global warning is that weather will become more extreme, and in particular that hurricanes will become more violent. Warm surface water is the fuel upon which hurricanes feed, and global warming theory predicts that the surface temperature of the ocean will rise.
New and more sophisticated measurements have recently confirmed this significant rise in the surface temperature of the ocean. And concomitantly, violent hurricanes have been occuring more frequently in recent years.
Second, the New Orleans levees that prevent the waters of Lake Pontchartrain from flooding into the city have been in need of repair. Though numerous engineers and local officials have requested more federal assistance for the levees, the budget for this preventive rebuilding effort has been drastically slashed in recent years.
Thus, though Hurricane Katrina itself could not have been predicted, that New Orleans would sustain a hurricane of this force sooner or later—and flood as a result—was a reasonable certainty.
With this in mind, let's look at three non-linear events that are now highly likely to strike humanity in the near future:
(This is the end of Part 1. Go to Part 2.)
—jim sloman, 9.3.05
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