(This is Part 6 of a series. Go back to Part 5.)
Intimately related to the financial and geopolitical areas is the energy scene. I believe it's safe to say that the majority of the geopolitical tension in the world is ultimately grounded in the scramble to secure and protect vital energy supplies.
All national governments recognise that without energy everything grinds to a halt. But the East is acting on this knowledge in a prodigious way: China's way, and that of other bloc members, is to make deals, period. In dealing with a particular nation, China does not care about human rights, ecological or labor matters or anything else. It's not there to intimidate or threaten; It's just there to do business. And it is making energy and resource deals all over the planet to secure reliable supples.
For instance, China's trade with Brazil has increased 1000 times since the 1970s. Latin American exports to China have increased at a torrid
20% annual pace since 2000.
Similarly, Iran, India, etc. have been busy making energy and resource deals all over Asia—Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Singapore, etc.—and that's not counting all the energy and material resource deals which Russia is making.
What's interesting is that these "Eastern" countries (some of which are in South America) are pulling together. Not only are Russia, China, India, Indonesia, Iran, the Caspian Basin, Malaysia, Venezuala, etc. pulling together geopolitically and diplomatically, but to some extent they are doing so as well in energy and finances.
Not only are Eastern nations making all sorts of cross deals among themselves in energy and resources, but there is also talk of eventually forming a region-wide currency. It's also interesting that the Eastern world is piling up financial reserves through trade surpluses with the Western world. While the Western world is, in general, sinking deeper into trade deficits, the Eastern world is busy accumulating financial assets, and increasingly physical assets too, across the planet.
Also adding to the polarization between the Eastern and Western poles is a frantic military buildup going on in China, Russia, Iran and so on because those nations and others have become deathly afraid of the arbitrary use of U.S. military power. Additionally, there are numerous cross agreements going on in the Eastern world concerning military cooperation.
Throwing U.S. weight around in the world has already cost it dearly, in terms of fostering this coalescing Eastern bloc, spearheaded by Russia and China but now including many other nations. There is a rising polarization now between this Eastern (including Muslim) bloc and the U.S.-led bloc.
As said earlier, the two blocs are already in a kind of Cold War through proxies—Iraq, Lebanon, the "color" revolutions in former Soviet states and so on. This Cold War II, which is on a relatively low burner now, could, because of rising polarization, heat up at some point into one or more hot wars on a regional or even planetary scale.
On the other hand, humanity could get lucky and realize that its very existence is at stake in the continuing ecological devastation occuring on planet earth. This realization, if it goes deep enough, could cause humanity to pull together globally to save itself and the diverse web of life on earth.
Another possible cause of this pulling together, as discussed elsewhere, could be humanity's increasing realization that it is being displaced in planetary dominance by another lifeform, one whose digital intelligence is growing by leaps and bounds. This could potentially precipitate a profound realization at some point that our common humanity is greater than our differences as individual humans.
Another possible cause of the pulling together of humanity would be the emergence of large-minded political leaders who can appeal to our common humanity—and our common work in the sustainability of the planet—rather than appealing to lesser identifications such as the nation or the party or the tribe or the ideology.
Such leaders would repeatedly call attention to our common humanity, to our preciousness as human beings, to our common work in grappling with ecological, energy, water, poverty and other challenges on a global scale. They would emphasize that we can pull together as a common humanity because our challenges require it.
If we identify principally with our nation, our tribe, our religion, our political ideology, etc. in the years to come, we are likely to give way to increasingly polarizing forces occurring in the world today in the military, energy, diplomatic, financial and other spheres.
On the other hand, if our recognition of our common humanity and
our common challenges comes—and comes soon enough—we could emerge into another kind of future where we become the sustainable and human heart of the planet.
(This is the end of Part 6. Go to Part 7.)
—jim sloman, 3.16.07
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