(This is Part 6 of a continuing series. Go back to Part 5.)
In this case, the use of huge amounts of water from non-renewable deep aquifers is the "stimulant drug" that is being used to raise crop yields. But when the easy water runs out the world will face a crisis in yields.
That is, the very stimulant being used to "energize" crop yields will eventually bring about a kind of exhaustion in yields instead. The early warning sign of this oncoming shortage, whenever it occurs, will show up in the futures markets as a relentless rise in world grain prices.
If we wanted to come at this matter of water from a more causal perspective, what could be done? Several things:
First and foremost would be actions by government to raise the price of water so that market forces would come into play to conserve it. Current price policies are based on a time when fresh water seemed inexhaustible; that is far from the case now.
Second would be a worldwide implementation of "drip" irrigation systems which place small but steady drops of water directly at the roots of plants. This method greatly conserves water while actually increasing yields.
Third would be an emphasis on "dry" sewage systems. The current system for dealing with human waste is to flush it away with vast amounts of water. Indeed, it's estimated that over a year a family of five using flush toilets creates 250 liters of waste which is washed away with 150,000 liters of water.
The notion of using water to flush away waste is an outmoded concept that is no longer appropriate in a world running out of water. A desirable and viable alternative is the "composting toilet," pioneered in Sweden, which turns human waste into compost.
Vendors periodically collect the humus and market it as soil fertilizer, which has the tremendous advantage of returning nutrients to the soil instead of flushing them into rivers, lakes and oceans. Returning nutrients to the soil completes the nutrient cycle.
Fourth would be for industry to cease using water to flush away industrial waste, a practice adopted when water was plentiful, and instead adopt technologically-feasible water recycling systems. Cities can do the same thing.
Finally, consumers can switch to more water-efficient household appliances. Water-efficiency standards for appliances can be adopted, similar to what has been done for energy-efficiency.
Historically, humanity has responded to increased need for water by drilling more wells, building more dams and diverting more river water. This is no longer feasible as aquifers become depleted and rivers dry up.
Instead, our emphasis can be placed on increasing water productivity, which can ultimately lead to a sustainable water cycle. Instituting a sustainable water cycle means looking at secondary effects rather than primary ones and thus dealing with the water issue at a causal level rather than a symptomatic one.
(This is the end of Part 6. Go to Part 7.)
—jim sloman, 9.21.04 for Mar 31
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