Two hundred and fifty million years ago, a huge catastrophe happened to the earth. A giant meteor hit, and it resulted in approximately 90% of the life on earth being wiped out. An unparalleled catastrophe.
And yet because of that catastrophe, there was so much "empty space" in the ecological environment that the dinosaurs were able to flourish and replace the reptiles as the dominant species.
Then, 65 million years ago, another giant meteor hit the earth and wiped out the dinosaurs. Another catastrophe.
One of the few life-forms that survived were the mammals. Now the mammals, which before existed on the fringes of things as tiny squirrel-like creatures, had a lot of ecological "space" and so were able to flourish and develop into tigers and giraffes and cats and dogs and, eventually, you and me.
The fact that you and I are here together in this moment is the result, in part, of those two catastrophes.
Now, in my opinion, we're heading down into another "catastrophe," a depression in all likelihood.
In my opinion, the widely-watched Dow Jones Industrial Average, which as of today is about 9,600 (down from 11,700) will continue down to, eventually, not too far from double-digits (in constant dollars).
That ultimate bottom will happen, in my opinion, around August 1, 2008, give or take a few months or even longer. It might stand by itself, or be the first or second bottom in a double bottom.
During this downward phase, the market will surely see times when it is going upward, even dramatically so. But then the relentless downward pressure will, in all probability, begin again.
Real estate, which so far has mostly resisted this downward pressure, will buckle soon, in my opinion, and eventually go below 20% of where it is now, and in all probability, perhaps go below 10% of where it is now.
All of this will be part-and-parcel of a depression that will rival and even exceed the 1930's. It will happen worldwide, in my opinion, and, for the most part, will look like a catastrophe to those of us who live through it.
If we had been back there 250 million years ago when 90% of life was wiped out, we surely would have labeled that a complete catastrophe too. And if we had been there 65 million years ago when the dinosaurs were completely wiped out, we surely would have called that a complete catastrophe as well.
And yet you and I are here because of it.
Can we really know, then, that anything in existence shouldn't happen the way it does? I don't think so.
This is not meant in any way to condone human tragedy, or to condone terrible things when they occur. We all grieve over them. Rather, the effort here is simply to pull the lens back to a larger perspective, where it is possible to see the beauty of existence even though it includes things that we grieve over.
It is quite possible, for instance, that out of the bitter ashes of the coming worldwide depression will arise miracles that couldn't have happened otherwise, that we may not even live to see, but that may very well transform the planet.
During this century we humans will also be facing ecological catastrophe, in my opinion, and the loss of our cherished status as the dominant species (see The Future, part one on this website). To many of us, it may seem like a very bitter time for human beings.
And yet, such utter "catastrophes" may very well eventually lead to things that we would label magical or even miraculous. For one thing, as we come under such tremendous stress, we'll probably pull together in ways that we could scarcely imagine now.
Everything balances in ways that, often, we can't even comprehend at the moment. Such knowing was part of the equanimity and compassion that could be observed in great masters throughout human history.
They knew what we can know—that this world, with its joys and sorrows, its beauties and catastrophes, is somehow perfect nonetheless in its magnificent "what-is"-ness.
The mind finds this quite incomprehensible, but the heart understands, wordlessly. In spite of the pain that we encounter in life, that mysterious knowing of the heart prevails.
—jim sloman, for 9/16/01
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