(This is Part 19 of a series. Go back to Part 18.)
4b. The coming geopolitical fire II
While the U.S. is declining, a new geopolitical center is arising in the world. The analyst Joseph Stroup refers to this as the "East," and that's as good a name as any. But the name belies a more complex reality.
The core of this new geopolitical center is the China/Russia axis. These two countries are both rising rapidly in terms of economic, military and political leverage in the world. China with its huge supply of skilled labor and growing economic clout, and Russia with its vast energy resources and military know-how, make a formidable combination. They are busily signing various economic, energy and security pacts with each other.
Both China and Russia are also busy signing various economic, energy and security pacts with India as well, forming a trilateral grouping. And China and India and the "East" in general are feverishly making deals all over the globe to secure energy and mineral resources, from South America to Africa to Central Asia. Meanwhile these same regions of the world are growing increasingly alienated from the U.S.—because of neglect, short-sighted policies and the Iraq invasion—and increasingly aligning themselves with the East.
Control of resources, particularly energy resources, will be foundational in the coming world order. That order can probably best be described as bipolar, with a U.S./Britain axis on one end and a China/Russia axis on the other. Like a see-saw, as the one is declining the other is continuing to rise—particularly in its control of energy, the all-important resource of the 21st century.
The China/Russia axis, in Joseph Stroup's memorable image, is acting as a gravitational center pulling in other and smaller centers, such as Central Asia, the horn of Africa, the mid-East, South America and so forth. And above all, the MidEast.
Both China and Russia have very strong connections to Iran, so much so that Iran can be viewed as their proxy in the Mideast. And Iran is busy establishing regional dominance. Iran is aided and abetted in this development, of course, by the continuing strategic blunders of the U.S.
The Saddam Hussein regime in Iraq was the main impediment to Iran's plans to dominate the Mideast region. The U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, and the resulting chaos and power vacuum there, has removed that impediment and greatly enhanced Iran's influence in the region.
Iran's conception is of a region-wide caliphate centered in Tehran. In this quest it is using its own proxies, including Hezbollah and Hamas, in Syria, Palestine, Lebanon and other areas. As Iraq slips further into chaos and anarchy the influence of the U.S. decreases while that of Iran continues to increase.
Moreover, the recent one-sided U.S. support of Israel in the War in Lebanon has only further radicalized the area. Most U.S. allies in the region have Sunni governments but Shiite populations. As the Shiite populations of the Mideast further radicalize, the power of Iran in the region grows, and with it, the power of its sponsors, Russia and China.
The world is slowly slipping into this bipolar configuration, a kind of new Cold War, in which China, Russia and the other nations in the Eastern axis are shrewdly acquiring greater economic, political and even military power through increasing alliances and increasing control of strategic energy resources while the U.S. squanders its financial and military power in Iraq and elsewhere.
The situation in the world today reminds me very much of the situation immediately preceding World War I. Like now, the various nations and governments were on a seemingly friendly basis; however, underneath the surface tensions were rising and coalitions were solidifying. As the tensions and conflicts built beyond a certain point it only took a spark to set off a conflagration.
So it seems now. We are seeing just the beginning of rising tensions and coalitions over energy. As the era of cheap fossil fuel passes away, and before alternative energies can come fully on stream, there will come a gap where humanity must sustain itself during a time of large energy deficits—with tremendous economic, political and security repercussions.
As energy becomes more scarce and costly there will be increasing conflicts fought over it, at first diplomatically and economically, and later, with increasing frequency and vehemence, militarily.
(This is the end of Part 19. Go to Part 20.)
—jim sloman, 12.29.06 for 1.29.06
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